A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
